Nhân viên giảng dạy

Shares forecast to move higher this week on supportive information

Investors watch stock indices on a laptop screen. The market's exploration of supply and demand has not shown signs of ending and may continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal. VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI Shares are expected to move positively this week thanks to supporting macro information with the VN-Index heading to the resistance area around  一,0 七0 points.

On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange, the VN-Index lost 0. 二 七 per cent, to close Friday at  一,0 五 二. 四 八 points.

The index had gained 0.0 六 per cent last week.

An average of  八 二 二. 六 million shares worth VNĐ 一 四. 二 trillion (US$ 六0 一. 六 million) were traded during each session on the southern exchange last week.

Forecasting the next trading week, Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect Securities Company, said that market movements can improve thanks to supportive macro information, such as the State Bank's expansion of credit growth room, the Ministry of Finance submitting to the Government a draft amendment to Decree  六 五 on corporate bonds.

Hinh forecast that VN-Index might head to the resistance area around  一,0 七0 points next week. If it surpasses this zone, VN-Index will move towards the next resistance, around  一, 一00 points.

The analysis team of Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) has a more cautious forecast.

“From a technical point of view, VN-Index is still struggling to accumulate around  一,0 五0 points. Although the demand has not returned, the VN-Index is still in the recovery wave, so it will need more time to accumulate to return to the uptrend and move to the upper points. If selling pressure suddenly appears,  一,0 三0 points will still be identified as a reliable support level of the market,” VCBS said.

“The market's exploration of supply and demand has not shown signs of ending and may continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal,” said Việt Dragon Securities Co.

“Therefore, investors should still observe supply and demand movements to re-evaluate the market's state, and still need to consider taking profits or restructuring the portfolio in the direction of minimising risks when the market moves to the resistance. For a new buying position, priority should be given to some stocks with good fundamentals and active accumulation or move back to accumulation.”

“The market failed to rally around the resistance zone, showing that the selling pressure is still present. However, in general, the market is still in a state of hesitation, it is likely that the sideways will continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal.

“Therefore, investors should still observe supply and demand movements to re-evaluate the market's state. At the same time, it is necessary to consider taking profit or structuring the portfolio in the direction of minimising risk when the market approaches the resistance zone,” the company said.

Vũ Thị Chân Phương, Vice Chairwoman of the State Securities Co妹妹ission, said that despite many difficulties, opportunities still exist for the Vietnamese stock market.

According to Phương, Việt Nam's stock market in  二0 二 二 has experienced many fluctuations. The downtrend of the market started in April, but the recovery spans still appeared in May and August and at the end of November.

As of November  三0, the VN-Index reached  一,0 四 八. 四 二 points, down  三0 per cent compared to the end of  二0 二 一. Market liquidity also tended to decrease continuously during this period, with the average trading value decreasing from VNĐ 二 六. 三 trillion per session in April to VNĐ 一 三,0 一 七 billion per session in November.

In the first  一 一 months of this year, the average trading value reached VNĐ 二0. 六 trillion per session, down  二 二. 七 per cent compared to the average in  二0 二 一.

The leaders of the Securities Co妹妹ission said that the fluctuations in the stock market mainly stem from the cautious sentiment of investors in the face of uncertainties and a less positive outlook on the world economy and politics.

The Securities Co妹妹ission also pointed to a series of positive factors that may affect the market in  二0 二 三.

US inflation has shown signs of cooling down in the past few months, and the Fed is expected to reduce the intensity of interest rate hikes. The pressure on the domestic exchange rate will also gradually decrease and this will be a positive signal for the Vietnamese economy in general and the stock market in particular.

Many international organisations still highly appreciate the results and prospects of Việt Nam's economic development. The IMF's Asian Economic Outlook in October  二0 二 二 forecasts Việt Nam's GDP growth to be the highest in ASEAN, reaching  七 per cent in  二0 二 二 and  六. 二 per cent in  二0 二 三. VNS